Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study


Showing posts with label notion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label notion. Show all posts

Friday, August 20, 2010

Dell, HP profits rise, wave off slowdown fears

SAN FRANCISCO: Dell Inc and Hewlett-Packard Co dismissed worries about weakening tech demand, reporting broad-based strength from corporate customers and only hints of weakness from consumers.

Both faced questions on Thursday, Aug 19 about the strength of the recovery in spending on TECHNOLOGY [], after Cisco Systems Inc CEO John Chambers' warned about "unusual uncertainty" in the global economy.

Analysts said fears persisted about the strength of any recovery in consumer spending, as growth moderates in Europe and China as well as in the United States.

But executives from the two largest U.S. personal computer makers waved off such fears.

"We saw better-than-normal quarterly seasonality, as well as good balanced performance across all of our three regions," said Cathie Lesjak, HP's interim chief executive, on a conference call with the media.

Dell beat Wall Street's profit and revenue estimates, and said it expected a continued pick-up in demand for PCs from corporate customers for the next several quarters. But the company's gross profit margin lagged Wall Street expectations and its shares fell in after-hours trading.

HP -- posting its first quarterly report since the ouster of CEO Mark Hurd -- said earnings rose 6 percent as expected, helped by strength in servers and personal computers.

Storage and server revenue rose 19 percent, while PC revenue rose 17 percent. Lesjak did not point to any particular weakness in the market, other than in consumer notebooks.

"People were spooked after Cisco cited uncertainty and now people are more concerned about how the rest of the year will play out," said Morningstar analyst Michael Holt.

REFRESH CONTINUES

On the corporate side, Dell Chief Financial Officer Brian Gladden said the refresh cycle was proceeding as forecast, adding that he expects component costs to start to come down in the fiscal third and fourth quarters.

Dell said it expected demand for PCs among corporate customers to continue for the "next several" quarters. It said it expects "seasonal improvements" in the third quarter, thanks to sales to the federal government and business customers, with a resulting "pick-up in the low single digits."

"This is a pretty stretched-out cycle and we think it'll continue for several quarters," he said in an interview with Reuters. For the fiscal second quarter, "commercial growth was really the key for us, servers, networking systems, storage, services. That was up about 43 percent."

Apart from questions about the strength of the global tech recovery, HP executives are also likely to field queries on its CEO search, officially launched Wednesday and encompassing both internal and external candidates.

HP, the world's largest technology company by revenue, forced out Hurd on Aug. 6 for expense account irregularities related to a female contractor. Hurd, CEO since 2005, had been credited with reviving the company's fortunes.

HP shares have fallen about 12 percent since Hurd left. The stock closed at $40.76 on the New York Stock Exchange, and dropped to $40.50 after hours.

Shares of Round Rock, Texas-based Dell, which are down roughly 31 percent since April, fell 2.6 percent to $11.73 in extended trading. - Reuters

Friday, April 30, 2010

DJ MARKET TALK: Notion Vtec May Rise; 2Q Net Profit Up 2.7 Times


0016 GMT [Dow Jones] Camera and automotive component maker Notion Vtec (0083.KU) may rise to test 30-day moving average of MYR3.31, says dealer with local brokerage; this, after company posts 2Q net profit of MYR12.3 million vs MYR4.6 million year earlier; takes 1H net profit to MYR26.4 million vs MYR11.9 million. Company cites recovery in demand as reason for better earnings; expects FY2010 to be "transition year" as it invests heavily into 2.5-inch hard disk drive. Company also proposes, 1 free warrant for every 5 shares held, 10% private placement to investors to be determined later; proceeds to be used to fund 2.5-inch disk drive investments; "The better results and proposed free warrants will likely be viewed positively," says dealer; adds company should be able to sustain or beat 2Q profit as demand expected to remain firm owing to component shortage, global recovery. Stock closed down 0.6% at MYR3.20 yesterday. (elffie.chew@dowjones.com)
http://www.notionvtec.com/
Financial Results
NOTION VTEC BERHAD proposes to undertake the following

Monday, March 15, 2010

Notion Vtec – Moving Up the Value Chain, Outperform

New Coverage- Notion Vtec (Notion) is an integrated precision engineering specialist and tools maker.
- Notion is expected to extensively produce for Samsung 2.5’’ baseplates components with initial production of 100K units per/month rising sharply to 1m units per/month (by June) and 2m pieces per/month by end-2010 respectively. We expect this to grow significantly in FY11-12 as Notion steps-up its capability to produce higher-value components.
- Recall that Nikon acquired a 8.98% via a private placement exercise raised about RM33.8m. The proceeds will be used for its plant in Thailand with plans for further expansion. We expect Notion Nikon to further develop its expertise and technical know-how in order to service Nikon which will further improve production efficiently.
- We estimate revenue growth in FY10, FY11, and FY12 to driven mainly by: 1) stronger demand in the 2.5’’ HDD segment particularly the robust orders from Samsung; and 2) stronger contribution from its camera division given volume loading from Nikon.
- We estimate a fair value of RM 4.59 based on 10x FY11 EPS. Initiate coverage with an Outperform recommendation.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Maybank Research initiates coverage on Notion, TP RM4.20

KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank Investment Research initiates coverage on NOTION VTEC BHD [] (NVB), which manufactures hard disk drive and camera barrel components, with a Buy and RM4.20 target price.

The research house said on Monday, Jan 18 it was projecting earnings growth of 28% per annum for the next two years and the stock is currently attractively valued. NVB is a leveraged play on rising outsourcing opportunities in the HDD and digital camera markets.

"Our target price is based on a 5 times FY11 EBITDA and 10x earnings. This is eminently achievable for a growth stock with superior ROEs (more than 20%) and margins but justified for a small cap stock currently with limited institutional following.

"Prospects are excellent for the PE multiple expansion, once shareholding is institutionalised and NVB is able to exploit multiple avenues for business expansion," it said.
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