Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

What the U.S. debt deal means for the global economy

When U.S. President Barack Obama announced Sunday night that he and Congressional leaders had finally reached an agreement to raise the government debt ceiling, the world breathed a collective sigh of relief. Stock markets in Asia jumped on the news. Yes, the pact still has to pass through the Senate and unruly House of Representatives (a vote will take place today) before becoming official. But in all likelihood the scary game of brinksmanship between the country's two political parties has come to an end (for now), and as a result, the U.S. will likely not default on Tuesday. If the world's most important economy had actually been unable to pay its bills, the consequences for the global economy could have been biblical. The fact that we (barely) averted such a disaster is a bit of good news, something investors haven't had much of recently.

But just as a default by the U.S. would have had an outsized impact on the global economy, due to the unique position of America in the world, a deal struck to alter the direction of fiscal policy will also have a tremendous effect. The decisions made (or in this case, not made) by Washington in the debt agreement will reverberate through the world economy for years to come.

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