Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

The Great Rotation: a flight to equities in 2013

By Mike Dolan
LONDON (Reuters) - One of the big investment shifts of our day may be at hand - regardless of how global markets actually perform this year.

What's already known as the "The Great Rotation" - a tilting of pension and insurance funds' strategic, long-term asset preference back toward equity from extreme positioning in bonds - has been one of themes of the new year so far.

The gist of the argument is that investor holdings of now expensive, ultra-low yielding government debt - following a virtually unbroken 20-year bull market in bonds - are ripe for rebalancing. The attraction of relative and absolute valuations in equity will coax the outflow to stocks.
It's this juncture that has some of the most persistent global equity bears of the past two decades, such as Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards, rethinking the big picture.

While there's little thaw evident in his view of an investment 'Ice Age' over the next couple of years, Edwards now reckons that over 10 years long-term institutional funds are in danger of missing "the cheapest equity prices in a generation."


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