Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Economic Transformation Programme: Roadmap to high-income nation

Written by Chan Kok Leong Wednesday, 22 September 2010 15:40

KUALA LUMPUR: The government has announced the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) to realise Malaysia’s ambition to turn the country into a high-income economy by 2020.

Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department, Senator Datuk Seri Idris Jala told a hall packed with some 3,000-odd corporate figures and business leaders yesterday that the ETP will help Malaysia triple its Gross National Income (GNI) from RM660 billion (2009) to RM1.7 trillion in 2020.

This translates to an increase of GNI per capita income from RM20,770 (US$6,700) to at least RM46,500 (US$15,000), meeting the World Bank’s high-income benchmark. To help achieve this, the government aims to sustain 6% GNI growth between 2011 and 2020.

On top of that grand aspiration, the government is confident that the private sector will be the primary driver for the push towards a high-income nation.

A total funding of over RM1.4 trillion is required for the duration of this economic push, with 92% of the funding expected to come from domestic investments and public funding expected to take up the remainder.

In his presentation, non government-linked companies (GLCs) are expected to fund 60% or RM824 billion with GLCs funding 32% or RM446 billion. Public spending is estimated to be around RM105 billion.

According to Idris, the targeted 60% private sector funding will be a significant increase from 37% in 2008, and is consistent with the 12.8% per annum private investment growth noted in the 10th Malaysia Plan.

During his hour-long presentation, it was noted that the total private investment from 2005 to 2010 was RM410 billion or an average of RM68 billion per annum.

“Malaysia needs to increase this average annual private investment level in the next 10 years by about 60% more than historical average to around RM120 billion per annum for 2011-2020,” said Idris.

Private investment-led growth will cut government funding, which is constrained by the need to improve the nation’s fiscal position, said Idris.

“As such, government funding will be targeted at initiatives that will maximise GNI impact for every ringgit of public money spent, with heavier emphasis on development expenditure over operational expenditure,” said the former Malaysian Airlines Bhd CEO.

“Malaysia has no time to lose. We need a complete, radical economic transformation. The days of depending on traditional growth engines are over. If we continue on the current model, we risk getting stuck in middle-income trap and lose out on talents necessary to support a high-income economy,” he added.

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, September 22, 2010.

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