Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study

Friday, September 24, 2010

Evergreen Fibreboard - A Triple Digit Leap

OSK - On an annualised basis, Evergreen Fibreboard’s (EFB) earnings beat our and consensus estimates. However, in being conservative, we are retaining our earnings estimates and maintain the stock’s target price at RM2.63, with its BUY recommendation intact. We also note that EFB has declared a second interim tax exempt dividend of 2 sen per share, which brings its total payout YTD to 4 sen per share, accounting for 55.5% of our full-year estimate of 7.2 sen per share.

Maintain BUY. We are keeping our BUY recommendation for EFB as its fundamentals remain intact. Our target price is maintained at RM2.63, derived from pegging its FY11 EPS at 26.3 sen and ascribing to the stock a higher tier building material PE of 10x.

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