Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Building up to a super bull run

A super bull run is on the horizon for Malaysian construction stocks next year on optimism that the RM40 billion Mass Rapid Transit project will start in July.

The bullish outlook is also backed by new government initiatives such as the Economic Transformation Programme and the 10th Malaysia Plan, said UOB KayHian head of research Vincent Khoo.

Research houses are maintaining their overweight call on the sector.

"We expect a bull run next year," Khoo told Business Times.

An analyst from TA Research said the stock market needs news like the MRT as a catalyst for construction stocks to sustain its upbeat momentum.

He said judging from the size of the MRT project, it is certain that almost all local construction companies will benefit.

"If the government divides the project evenly, then each company could get contracts worth RM500 million to RM1 billion. This augurs well for the sector," he said.

The MRT, comprising three lines, is the largest infrastructure project in Malaysia's history. The last project announced was the RM12.5 billion double tracks.

Analysts said the first of the three MRT lines, joining Sungai Buloh and Kajang, running through Kuala Lumpur City Centre, is estimated at RM14 billion. The line will cover 60km and have 35 stations.

They said MMC-Gamuda Joint Venture Sdn Bhd may get the tunneling portion from Sungai Buloh to Kajang, worth RM6 billion to RM8 billion.

Master Builders Association Malaysia president Kwan Foh Kwai expects companies like Sunway Construction, IJM Construction, Muhibbah Engineering, Bina Puri, Loh & Loh, MRCB Engineering, UEM Builders, WCT, Ranhill and Ahmad Zaki to bid for the MRT.

Others include Eversendai Corp, Crest Builders, Putra Perdana Construction and MTD ACPI.

Ahmad Zaki managing director Datuk Wan Zakariah Muda said the MRT news is positive for the sector. "There will be spillovers and knock-on effects. We plan to participate in the MRT," he said.

An official from Putra Perdana Construction Sdn Bhd said it will eye packages to build structures, stations, bridges and tunnel lining work.

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