Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study


Thursday, September 29, 2011

Share buybacks point to opportunities

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — To many investors, it’s a bear market, a wasteland with few if any opportunities — even on a global scale. From high points earlier this year, Japanese markets are down 21%, Germany has dropped 33% and France has declined by 34%. And the U.S. and U.K. markets, down 17 or so percent, from peaks earlier this year, aren’t far behind.

Yet, at times like these, there’s always a bargain to be found. Like those who search for truffles, you just need to know where to look.

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Saturday, September 24, 2011

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Stocks End Sharply Lower After Fed Decision

Stocks closed near session lows after selling off sharply in the final hour Wednesday as investors were cautious over the Fed's grim outlook, even as it proposed plans to ramp up its aid to help the economy.

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The Fed announced it would launch a new $400 billion program in a move to rebalance its $2.87 trillion portfolio—a version of the widely expected Operation Twist—by selling shorter-term notes and using those funds to purchase longer-dated Treasurys.

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The men who crashed the world

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

America's debt woe is worse than Greece's

Boston, Massachussetts (CNN) -- Our government is utterly broke. There are signs everywhere one looks. Social Security can no longer afford to send us our annual benefit statements. The House can no longer afford its congressional pages. The Pentagon can no longer afford the pension and health care benefits of retired service members. NASA is no longer planning a manned mission to Mars.

We're broke for a reason. We've spent six decades accumulating a huge official debt (U.S. Treasury bills and bonds) and vastly larger unofficial debts to pay for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits to today's and tomorrow's 100 million-plus retirees.

The government's total indebtedness -- its fiscal gap -- now stands at $211 trillion, by my arithmetic. The fiscal gap is the difference, measured in present value, between all projected future spending obligations -- including our huge defense expenditures and massive entitlement programs, as well as making interest and principal payments on the official debt -- and all projected future taxes.

The data underlying this figure come straight from the horse's mouth -- the Congressional Budget Office. The CBO's June 22 Alternative Fiscal Scenario presents nothing less than a Greek tragedy. It's actually worse than the Greek tragedy now playing in Athens. Our fiscal gap is 14 times our GDP. Greece's fiscal gap is 12 times its GDP, according to Professor Bernd Raffelhüschen of the University of Freiburg.

In other words, the U.S. is in worse long-term fiscal shape than Greece. The financial sharks are circling Greece because Greece is small and defenseless, but they'll soon be swimming our way.

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Saturday, September 17, 2011

50-50 chance U.S. will fall back into recession

Market up for 5th day, but Europe issues linger

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rose for a fifth day on Friday on hopes Europe was on course to solve its debt problems, but investors warned of sharp reversals if real solutions failed to materialize.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urged EU finance ministers to leverage their bailout fund to better tackle the debt crisis and to start speaking with one voice, but there was no agreement on what steps to take.

"There are still a lot of open-ended issues out there, which means this situation will remain pretty fluid," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia. "All of what we just gained in the last five trading sessions could be given back."

On Thursday stocks rallied as the world's leading central banks agreed to boost short-term dollar funding for banks, easing investor fears about the European financial system.

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Friday, September 16, 2011

Are Investors Taking Debt Crisis in Europe Too Lightly?

Despite a long-term picture in Europe that appears to be as unsettled as ever, investors will take any bit of good news and run with it.

That's been the message from a succession of trading days in which even the whisper of resolution to the European sovereign debt problem-a conference call among policy makers, another bailout installment for Greece-sees the market go higher.

Even downbeat economic numbers, like the batch the government released Thursday, weren't enough to derail hopes that Europe won't implode and take the global economy down for the ride.

"Somehow we're back to a risk-on trade again," says David Twibell, president of Custom Portfolio Group in Englewood, Col. "The problem in Europe is, 1) very serious, and 2) there is no easy solution. If there was we would have already solved the problem. The market is being a bit pollyannaish right now."

An announcement that the European Central Bank and its global cohorts are embarking on a program aimed at providing dollars for liquidity-challenged banks served as all the catalyst the market needed to surge.

Those who trade on hope that the plan will fix the debt crisis do so at their own peril, Twibell says.

"If the market is going to be remotely rational, the upside is going to be fairly limited," he says. "We still don't know how the US economy shakes out. The situation in Europe is going to be an overhang. I don' see a lot of upside, and the downside could be substantial if we see a disorderly default in Europe."

Though the problems with European debt and the effect it will have on banks run well beyond liquidity and into actual solvency, the narrative that took hold was that central bankers were taking a proactive step to prevent another catastrophe on the scale of the fall of Lehman Brothers.

The move came on the third anniversary of Lehman's implosion and conjured up memories of the financial crisis that nearly brought down the entire global economy.

"What is the good news? That the big powers in Europe are still adamantly opposed to any kind of debt resolution?" said Walter Zimmerman, senior vice president at United-ICAP in Jersey City, N.J. "Those who don't have a vested interest in European banks look at that and say it's just delusional to think that Greece is going to get out of this without any type of debt restructuring."

The answer to the market's movement, then, could be as much technical as it is based on hopes for European stability.

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Thursday, September 15, 2011

Stocks Rally on Hopes for Progress on Greece's Debt

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stock indexes jumped in another day of bumpy trading Wednesday after European leaders renewed pledges to help Greece avoid defaulting on its debts.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 194 points, or 1.8 percent, to 11,299 at 3 p.m. It had been down as many as 112 points within an hour after the opening bell.

The leaders of Greece, France and Germany agreed in a teleconference that Greece was an "integral" part of the 17-nation bloc that uses the euro. Greece also agreed to abide by agreements to trim its debts. The statements were intended to calm fears that Greece was headed for a default on its debt or might be forced to exit the euro.

European stock indexes rose in the hours leading up to the meeting as investors hoped the talks would be productive. Germany's DAX gained 3.4 percent and France's CAC-40 1.9 percent.

The threat of a Greek default and the damage it could wreak on financial markets has had investors on edge in the past two weeks, lifting Treasurys and weighing on stocks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit a record low on Monday of 1.87 percent and the S&P 500 has only risen three days this month.

Uri Landesman, president of the New York hedge fund Platinum Partners, said worries over Greece have gone too far. Landesmann thinks European countries won't let a Greek default create a larger financial crisis. "They're just not going to let them go under," he said. "That's just not happening. I think people have learned the lesson from letting Lehman Brothers fail."

German Chancellor Angela Merkel distanced herself from comments this week by her vice chancellor and others who suggested a Greek bankruptcy was possible. The finance ministers from the 17 nation-bloc that uses the euro currency will meet on Friday in Poland.

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Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Stocks Could Be Running Up the 'Bear Flag,' Signaling Another Move Lower


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Dow Could Crash to 3,000 in 2013: Author

The recent gyrations in global stock markets are just the beginning, says U.S.-based economist and author Harry Dent, who believes the Dow will fall below 10,000 in the near term before crashing to around 3,000 in 2013.

He pointed to the selloff during the last global financial crisis, when the Dow lost around 8,000 points in the period between October 2007 and early 2009.

Dent based his bearish predictions squarely on the changing spending habits of global consumers.

"Baby boomers around the world, and all the developed countries — Europe, North America, Australia — they have peaked in their spending cycles...they've been driving up real estates prices and stock prices and the economy for decades, and now they're going to be saving and not borrowing," Dent said.

Accentuating the problem is the deleveraging of U.S. private debt, which has doubled to $42 trillion from $20 trillion in the last eight years, according to Dent, and is now valued at three times the size of the nation’s public debt.

"That debt is deleveraging, and that's actually causing deflationary trends. It won't matter how much stimulus the government throws at the system, because baby boomers with their already huge debt burdens will not want to borrow money and spend more,” said Dent.

"In the Great Depression, that's what happened — deflation came in such a deep downturn because so much debt was deleveraging."

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Stocks turn higher in final minutes



Saturday, September 10, 2011

Friday, September 9, 2011

Obama Unveils $447 Billion Jobs Plan to Congress

President Barack Obama proposed a $447 billion jobs package on Thursday to help boost the U.S. economy, challenging Congress to pass legislation made up largely of tax cuts for workers and businesses.

"It will provide a jolt to an economy that has stalled and give companies confidence that if they invest and hire there will be customers for their products and services. You should pass this jobs plan right away," Obama said.

Obama, whose 2012 re-election depends on his ability to bring down the 9.1 percent unemployment rate, proposed extending unemployment insurance at a cost of $49 billion, modernizing schools for $30 billion and investing in transportation infrastructure projects for $50 billion.

But the bulk of his proposal was made up of $240 billion in tax relief by cutting payroll taxes for employees in half next year and trimming employer payroll taxes as well.

The $447 billion is more than the $300 billion initially expected.

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Wall St extends losses after Bernanke speech

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Stocks rally after Germany upholds bailout plan

NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stocks rallied for the first time in three days Wednesday after a German court backed the country's role in bailing out other European countries. The ruling renewed hopes that Europe will find a solution to its long-running debt problems.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 253 points, or 2.3 percent, to 11,392 at 2:30 p.m. EST. The Dow and other U.S. indexes fell over the previous three days on worries about Europe's debt woes and weakness in the U.S. jobs market. All 30 stocks in the Dow rose.

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Bernalec and Bernalec-cb

Bursa and Bursa-ct


Wednesday, September 7, 2011

U.S. stocks drop in bleak September streak

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks tumbled for a third straight session Tuesday, marking the S&P 500’s worst September start in its five-decade history, on worries related to Europe’s debt crisis.

A rush to assets still perceived as safe sent the 10-year Treasury yield to a record low. The Swiss franc, recently a popular alternative to the euro and dollar, fell the most since the formation of the euro after the Swiss central bank capped the exchange rate.

The day’s action resulted in the roughest September start for U.S. stocks in years if not decades. Still, the close marked a recovery from session lows.

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Monday, September 5, 2011

Sunday, September 4, 2011

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Stocks plunge after US hiring dries up in August

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks plunged Friday after a dismal report on the job market renewed fears of another recession.

No jobs were added in the U.S. last month, the government said early Friday. It was the worst report in 11 months. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.1 percent. It has been above 9 percent in all but two months since May 2009.

"It's certainly ugly," said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial. Kleintop said the report didn't change his view that the economy was headed for a stretch of weak economic growth, not a recession.

Treasury yields fell sharply and gold jumped $48 an ounce as cash flowed into investments seen as less risky than stocks. Overseas markets followed U.S. stocks lower. They were already lower on reports that talks between Greece and international lenders over that country's debt crisis were breaking down.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 250 points, or 2.2 percent, to 11,240 at 3:37 p.m. EST. All 30 stocks in the Dow fell. Bank of America Corp. fell the most, 8 percent.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 30, or 2.5 percent, to 1,173. The Nasdaq composite index fell 65, or 2.5 percent, to 2,480.

The losses wiped out most of this week's gains, pushing the Dow and S&P 500 down by less than 1 percent. Stock indexes rose last week for the first time since July 22.

Volume was thin ahead of the Labor Day weekend, which often makes markets take bigger jumps. When fewer traders are active in the market, large buy and sell orders can move stock prices more than they would on a typical day.

The lack of hiring in the Labor Department's closely watched jobs report surprised investors. Previously reported job addition figures for June and July were also revised lower. The average work week declined and hourly earnings fell.

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