Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study


Friday, December 23, 2011

Boustead sees bountiful year amid high CPO prices

BOUSTEAD Holdings Bhd expects to rake in record profit this year as palm oil prices continue to trade at buoyant levels of around RM3,000 per tonne.
Out of its six core businesses, plantation is the biggest earnings contributor, followed by shipbuilding and property development.

In the three quarters ended September 2011, Boustead's plantation division contributed RM267.1 million or 45.5 per cent to the group's RM585.9 million pre-tax profits.

So far, Boustead makes an annual profit of between RM450 million and RM700 million.

Read more: Boustead sees bountiful year amid high CPO prices

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Johor Corp, CVC Capital launch takeover of QSR, KFCH

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 14): Johor Corporation and CVC Capital Partners Asia III Ltd have teamed up to take over QSR BRANDS BHD [] and KFC HOLDINGS (M) BHD [] (KFCH).

Johor Corp and CVC Capital had on Wednesday, made the offer via a special purpose vehicle Massive Equity Sdn Bhd (MESB) in which Johor Corp holds a 51% stake and CVC Capital 49%.

MESB offered RM6.80 for the shares in QSR Brands Bhd and RM3.79 for the warrants. At RM6.80, this is 80 sen above the closing price of RM6 on Tuesday while the offer price for the warrants was a premium of 77 sen from the closing price of RM3.02.

MESB also made an offer to KFCH of RM4 per share and RM1 per warrant. At RM4, this was 59 sen above the closing price of RM3.41 on Tuesday but five sen below the closing price of RM1.05.

The securities were suspended from trading on Wednesday and resume on Thursday.

Johor Corp owns 55.9% of KULIM (M) BHD [], which, in turn, owns 53.9% of QSR. QSR has a 50.93% stake in KFCH.

Analysts had earlier expected only Johor Corp to take over QSR and KFCH and this did not include CVC Capital’s participation.

“By taking QSR and KFC Holdings private, Johor Corp would have more control and direct ownership over the cash flows and dividends of the crown jewels, KFC and Pizza Hut. QSR and KFC Holdings generate strong operating cash flows of RM250m million to RM300 million per annum but Johor Corp only get to enjoy less than half of it given their current stakes.

“A buyout of QSR and KFCH would increase the amount of dividends and cash flows that Johor Corp enjoys from this top fast food operator,” a research house said.

In December last year, Johor Corp had stated it has no plans to sell its prized assets, QSR and KFCH, which are held through its subsidiary Kulim.

Its president and chief executive Kamaruzzaman Abu Kassim had then said JCorp entered the quick service restaurants business in 2006 (through Kulim’s investment in QSR) and since then has seen tremendous growth in revenue and profit before tax (PBT) at an average of 13.8% and 3.7% per annum respectively.

“The results from this segment had contributed significantly, making up 47.5% and 44.1% respectively to Kulim’s revenue and PBT in the financial year ended Dec 31, 2009.

“It does not make sense to sell our core business,” he had then said in a statement.

Read more...

MAS to launch premium unit in ‘near term recovery plan’

Loss-making Malaysian Airline System Bhd (MAS) will launch a new regional premium airline, cut unviable routes and shed noncore businesses in its so-called "near term recovery plan" unveiled yesterday in a bid to return to profitability by 2013.

The new full-service airline will connect Malaysia to key destinations in the country and Asean, as well as South Asia and Greater China, using a fleet of Boeing 737-800, said MAS in a media statement yesterday. The-yet-to be named premium airline will fly all MAS’ domestic and regional routes in the long term.

The segmentation of management will allow the airline to focus on the unique needs of regional premium travellers, said MAS group chief executive officer (CEO) Ahmad Jauhari Yahya in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.

“Our domestic and regional routes are still our most profitable, in spite of intense competition from AirAsia Bhd,” he said.

The premier market of customers who prefer to fly full-service airlines will stay and is expected to grow, he said.

Read more...

Sunday, December 11, 2011

It’s a tough pull for MAS

MALAYSIA Airlines (MAS) is perhaps the only Malaysian company that has undertaken the most number of restructuring exercises over the past decade to try to get back on its feet.

A decade ago its books were severely tainted with red ink and had to be cleaned up via the Widespread Asset Unbundling (WAU) exercise where it became an asset light airline. But 10 years later it is still in dire straits and appears not too far from where it was a decade ago.

This Wednesday the new boss of MAS, Ahmad Jauhari Yahya, after coming in one-and-a-half hours late for the media briefing, threw in yet another plan to put it back on course. The theme is “right sizing'' and it involves cost cuts to spinning-off businesses.
Read more
Source of photo

NB: Monitor for sign of successful turnaround!!

The making of Sapura Kencana Petroleum

The creation of an oil and gas giant hasbegun. SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd and Kencana Petroleum Bhd will be going through an RM11.85bil merger exercise to create the largest oil service provider by assets in the country - soon to be known as Sapura Kencana Petroleum Bhd.

For now, under a cash and share swap deal, a special purpose vehicle called Integral Key Sdn Bhd would be buying all the assets and liabilities of SapuraCrest for RM5.87bil and Kencana for RM5.98bil.

This shall be satisfied by some five billion Integral Key shares priced at RM2, and RM1.84bil in cash.

Integral Key has offered to acquire the SapuraCrest business for RM5.87bil equivalent to RM4.60 per share. It will acquire Kencana's business for RM5.98bil equivalent to RM3 per share.

At RM2, Integral Key's implied price earnings (PE) is approximately 20 times. The historical PE multiple of Kencana and SapuraCrest are 28.04 times and 25.41 times respectively.

Read more...

Saturday, December 10, 2011

SapuraCrest Kencana eyes lucrative overseas deals

The upcoming merged entity is bidding for multi-billion ringgit worth of oil and gas jobs stretching from Malaysia to Brazil.

SapuraCrest Kencana Petroleum Bhd, the upcoming merged entity between Malaysia’s two largest oil and gas (O&G) players, is eyeing more international projects, especially in Australia and Brazil, to boost its already fat order book of RM13 billion.

SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd executive vicechairman and president, Datuk Seri Shahril Shamsuddin, said the company and Kencana Petroleum Bhd were bidding for multi-billion ringgit worth of O&G jobs stretching from Malaysia to Brazil.

“There is a lot of work coming out of Australia and Brazil is also another country that you can’t ignore. India is also heating up with new investments in oilfields.

“In the longer term, we will look at the Gulf of Mexico. As a merged entity, we can take on more jobs and bid for larger projects,” Shahril said in an interview with Business Times yesterday.

Also present was Kencana Petroleum Bhd’schief executive officer Datuk Mokhzani Mahathir.

SapuraCrest last month won a US$1.4 billion (RM4.4 billion) contract from Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras), Latin America’s largest company, to charter and operate three units of pipe-laying support vessels.

Kencana, on the other hand, announced yesterday that it won a RM1 billion contract to help build a liquefied natural gas processing facility in Australia, awarded by United States-based Bechtel International Inc.

Shahril said SapuraCrest Kencana, which will be the world’s fourth largest O&G service provider by market capitalisation upon merging, aimed to grow its revenue by 15 to 20 per cent per annum.

“Currently, our combined revenue is between RM5 billion and RM5.5 billion a year and we are confident to increase that year-onyear,” Shahril said.

On whether the new merged entity will embark on an acquisition trail, Shahril said if there were companies that could help mitigate risk or enable SapuraCrest Kencana to do projects at low cost, it would consider the options available.

The acquisitions may include buying engineering firms or those involved in specialised areas.

SapuraCrest and Kencana are merging in a deal worth RM11.85 billion to create the largest O&G service provider by asset in the country.

Under their cash and share swap deal, special purpose vehicle Integral Key Sdn Bhd will buy all the assets and liabilities of SapuraCrest for RM5.87 billion and Kencana for RM5.98 billion.

The companies are obtaining shareholders' approval at their respective extraordinary meetings on December 14 and December 15.

The exercise is scheduled to be completed by first quarter 2012.

Read more: SapuraCrest Kencana eyes lucrative overseas deals

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Maxcorp boss seeks to take over Wijaya

The low-profile Anuar Adam, who helms privately-held Maxcorp Group, aims to buy out Datuk Tiong King Sing’s interest in Wijaya at about RM1.10 per share.

Kuala Lumpur: Former army Major (rtd) Anuar Adam is gunning for control of Wijaya Baru Global Bhd.

Anuar is understood to be backed by a group of powerful Indonesian businessmen.

The low-profile Adam, who helms privately-held Maxcorp Group of companies, aims to buy out Datuk Tiong King Sing in a deal that values the Sarawakian tycoon’s interest in Wijaya at about RM1.10 per share.

Wijaya’s mother share closed 4.5 sen higher at 80.5 sen, while the warrants ended the trading day 9.5 sen higher at 33 sen.

Read more...

How to Chase the Market Rally


They say the best athletes make it look easy; their swing so fluid, their sight so sharp, their hands so certain. Whatever the case may be, their performance is as instinctive as it is smooth. And so it is with the best investors, who have the consistency and confidence to play their game, and not be enticed into something else.

For Gene Peroni, portfolio manager at Advisors Asset Management, his game is simple: "Identify quality companies, with good earnings growth, good cash flow, and in some cases nice dividends", that are technically "trending higher, not ones that are still in troughs."

"Once we've identified those stocks...I think the best tack is to buy and hold through the short-term volatility," Peroni explains in the attached video.

While many investors may fear that they have missed the move of the past week or so, this Philadelphia-based fund manager sees higher levels ahead

"It would seem like you were chasing the markets," Peroni says. "But when you really compare that with the upside potential before the end of the cycle -- I believe it's above 16,000 (on the Dow Jones Industrial Avg.) over the next several years -- then the risk to reward, even at these levels, remains very attractive. For stocks individually, it's an even better outlook."

Cyclicals, and what he calls the "market leaders", are his favorites right now particularly Transportation plays like airlines, truckers, shippers as well as rails "right down the line." Kansas City Southern (KSU) being one of his favorites.

In addition, if you combine his expectation that there will be a migration into small and midcap names, with his affinity for industrials, aerospace and defense names like TransDigm (TDG) make the cut over their large cap peers.

And finally, Peroni is getting long energy, which he says has good sub-sector underlying strength in groups like oil and gas drillers, oil services and oil technology. Here, he singles out Concho Resources (CXO) as a "leadership stock" that's worth a look.

What do you think? Is it time to dive in or cash out?

Read more...

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Three-way bid for Proton stake

It is believed that the bidders are Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar AlBukhary’s DRB-HICOM, several key shareholders linked to the Naza Group and Proton chairman Datuk Mohd Nadzmi Mohd Salleh.

As many as three parties have submitted a bid to Khazanah Nasional Bhd yesterday to seek control of national carmaker Proton Holdings Bhd, people involved in the bidding process said.

“The bids were in the range of between RM6 and RM7 a share,” said a party directly involved in the bidding process.

It is believed that the bidders are Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar AlBukhary’s DRB-HICOM Bhd, several key shareholders linked to the Naza Group and Proton chairman Datuk Mohd Nadzmi Mohd Salleh.

Khazanah has a 43 per cent stake in Proton, and any bidder seeking to buy the government investment arm’s block will trigger a general offer.

“Those are the nitty gritty details, which are still being worked at ... but whoever is buying Proton is getting the company on the cheap,” said the source.

As at end-March 2011, Proton’s book value per share stood at RM9.84.

Read more: Three-way bid for Proton stake

Monday, December 5, 2011

Marco is on an uptrend, albeit gradual

MARCO CORPORATION (M) SDN BHD is a wholly owned subsidiary of Marco Holdings Bhd., listed on the main board Bursa Malaysia. Farsighted with a focused vision, coupled with a steadfast corporate culture, these values have greatly contributed to the rapid business expansion of MARCO CORPORATION.

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