Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study


Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Evergreen – Dividend payment to continue Outperform

Evergreen – Dividend payment to continue Outperform
Visit Note- 4Q09 capacity utilisation is estimated to be at 78% (+5% qoq) while its current capacity utilisation stands%D�bove 80%. The improvement was due to rising demand mainly from supply shortages. Evergreen remains%D�onfident of achieving more than 80% capacity utilisation in FY10.- Average selling prices increased by US$5/m3 from 4Q09 for 1Q10 orders. Average selling prices for orders received in Dec 09 increased by US$5/m3, which implies that 1Q10’s average selling prices could hover%D�round the US$245/m3 to US$250/m3 levels. Given the current outlook, management is confident thatprices would hold firm at current levels.- Rising commodity prices not a concern. Evergreen expects rubber wood log and glue prices to remain firm%D�uring the year, as historically, these raw materials have generally been relatively stable.- Currently dormant Indonesian plant would restart its operations in 2Q10 given that Evergreen is in final negotiations with its 49% JV.

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