Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study


Monday, April 26, 2010

The Week Ahead 26.04.10 - 30.04.10

Monday: There are no market-moving economic reports due Monday. In Washington, the Senate will take up a test vote on starting debate for the Wall Street regulatory reform bill.

Tuesday: The S&P/Case-Shiller 20 city home price index is expected to have fallen 0.1% in February from January levels, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. In January the index fell 0.7% from the previous month.

The Consumer Confidence index from the Conference Board is due shortly after the start of trading. The index is expected to have risen to 54 in April from 52.5.

The Senate holds a hearing on the role investment banks played in the 2008 market meltdown. Among those scheduled to testify: Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Fabrice Tourre - the executive at the center of the fraud case.

Earlier this month, the SEC charged Goldman with defrauding investors in a sale of securities connected to subprime mortgages, and also named Tourre in the suit.

Wednesday: The Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting concludes, with an announcement on interest rates due in the afternoon. The central bank is widely expected to hold the fed funds rate, a key overnight bank lending rate, steady at historic lows near zero percent.

However, what the bankers say in the statement will likely move markets in the afternoon, particularly if they give more details about how they plan to withdraw trillions in stimulus put into play amid the height of the financial crisis. Any indication about the timing for raising interest rates would also move markets.

Thursday: Weekly and continuing jobless claims are due in the early morning from the Department of Labor.

Friday: The first reading on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter is due before the start of trading. GDP likely grew at a 3.5% annualized rate after growing at a 5.6% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of last year.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for April is due after the start of trading. The index is expected to have risen to 71.8 from 69.5 in March.

The Chicago PMI, a regional reading on manufacturing, is also due after the start of trading. The index is expected to have risen to 60 from 58.8 in March. Any number over 50 indicates expansion.

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