Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study


Tuesday, May 25, 2010

The Buzz: Are stocks in a correction or a bear market?

Sell in May and go away may seem like a silly Wall Street saying. But if you actually followed those words of wisdom, you'd be breathing a lot easier right now.

Stocks fell Monday as a better-than-expected jump in existing home sales in April was not enough to outweigh fears about the debt crisis in Europe. Tthe S&P 500 is now down about 9.5% in May.

So what now? Is the May malaise merely a long-awaited correction or the start of a new bear market that could last months or years? Is it time to buy in June and sing a happy tune?

Several market experts are guardedly optimistic that things won't get significantly worse. That's the good news.

"The most immediate concerns are transitory. They are important but they will get resolved soon," said David Joy, chief market strategist with Columbia Management in Boston. "It's important to have a well diversified portfolio and be prudent. But there's no need to exit the stock market."

Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist with Key Private Bank in Cleveland, added that he thinks there is little room left for stocks to fall from here. In fact, he said it's possible the market may have already hit bottom.

"This could be a surprisingly short correction," he said.

The bad news though is that the market may remain choppy for the foreseeable future.

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