Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Stocks on the rise: A sucker's rally?

By Alexandra Twin, senior writer June 17, 2010: 8:37 AM ET

NEW YORK ( -- The Dow has puffed up nearly 600 points in a week on the thinnest of fumes: a short-term bounce in the euro and some amnesia about the European debt crisis.

While the advance has been a relief to U.S. investors who watched stocks plunge 12% in the previous six weeks, many market pros think the path of least resistance remains to the downside. That's partly because the issues that caused the selloff haven't disappeared and partly because the selloff was pretty small relative to the rally that preceded it.

Between the 12-year lows hit in March 2009 at the height of the financial crisis, and the highs of late April, the S&P 500 gained 80%. Since then, the major gauges have fallen into a correction - a slump of more than 10% off the highs, but not a bear market - a slump of at least 20% off the highs. Many experts think the market needs to lose more before it can move ahead.

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