Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study


Thursday, April 22, 2010

DUFU CHART: TIME TO ACCUMUALTE AS TECHNICAL READING ARE GROSSLY OVERSOLD

Recommendation: ACCUMULATE%D�urrent Price: RM0.55%D�-month Technical Target: RM0.73%

Catalysts: Playing catch-up against the bigger HDD players and riding on the bullish HDD outlook

Dufu, a laggard in recent rally
The Penang-based company has withstood many cycles profitably in its 22-year history, a testament to its resilience and cost%D�ontrol efforts. Its future growth will centre on newly acquired Futron Technology since 1Q09, whose plant in China will be able to%D�ater for larger orders and at lower costs.%D�espite its strong earnings growth and low valuations, DUFU’s shares have been a laggard during the recent rally, possibly due to its smaller market capitalization and free float, limited range of products, lower dividend yield and weaker EPS CAGR from FY09-%D�Y11 against its peers. As a results, its share price only increased 0.9% (industry: 7.5%), 15.8% (industry: 30%) and 3.8% on a 1-month, 2-month and 3-month basis, respectively.

Poised for a breakout after completing its triangle consolidation
Since hitting a 52-week high of RM0.73 on 12 Jan 2010, DUFU’s share price has been trapped in a triangle consolidation. As trend%D�nd momentum indicators are gradually heading upwards, we are optimistic that DUFU’s share prices will nudge higher as current%D�onsolidation is likely at its tail end. We are eyeing the RM0.60 level (50% FR from top RM0.73 and low of RM0.46) as theimmediate upside target, followed by the RM0.63 (61.8% FR), RM0.67 (76.4% FR) and 52-week high of RM0.73.

On the downside immediate support is at the RM0.54 level (50-day SMA), followed by RM0.52 (23.6%FR) level and RM0.505 (100-%D�ay SMA). Our cut-loss point is pegged at the RM0.50 psychological support level

Recommendation: ACCUMULATE%D�t RM0.55, DUFU is trading at 4.7x FY11 P/E (industry 7.1x) and 0.6x FY11 P/B (industry 2.1x), respectively. We expect the huge%D�7% P/E and 71% P/B discounts to the industry to narrow as DUFU gradually plays catch-up with its peers. Our 6-month technical target price for DUFU is RM0.73, implying a 0.8x FY11 P/B.

Share price is poised for a breakout above the downtrend line once the triangle consolidation completed.


dufutechnology.com/

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