Selected Stock Hot News: HDBSVR: RM36b mass rapid transit to transform local construction landscape

Friday, September 3, 2010

HDBSVR: RM36b mass rapid transit to transform local construction landscape

Written by HwangDBS Vickers Research Friday, 03 September 2010 14:17

KUALA LUMPUR: Hwang DBS Vickers Research (HDBSVR) expects the RM36-billion mass rapid transit (MRT) to drive the CONSTRUCTION [] sector, once it is approved and takes off.

The research house said the probability of it being approved is high as the recent subsidy cuts suggest political will.

A key turning point could be the outcome of two consultant studies in mid-September. This project could see Gamuda’s orderbook double and MMC’s triple, but all contractors will benefit given its sheer size.

“In terms of sum-of-parts accretion, we expect additional 26 sen per share for Gamuda and 17 sen for MMC. The MRT project also ties in with another anchor market theme – government land sales. We expect MRCB’s participation in the 3,400-acre RRIM land to give it pricing power beyond our assumption of RM300 psf,” it said.

Hwang DBS Vickers Research said the 10th Malaysia Plan (10MP) tabled in June 2010 has at least set the foundation for the rollout of key projects.

“There is emphasis on upgrading the country’s transportation system with projects including seven new highways, LRT extensions, MRT and southern double tracking worth a total of RM71 billion.

“A total of 52 public-private projects (PPP) worth RM62.7bn were also identified. There is also a RM20 billion fund established to facilitate private sector investments in projects with high strategic value and multiplier effects,” it said.

HDBSVR said the sector will ultimately be driven by newsflow, but it expects more emphasis on margin recovery to monitor execution risks.

The research house expects stronger margin recovery in 2HCY10, and normalising to 9-10% in FY11; IJM is a candidate with zero legacy jobs in its orderbook currently.

From January 2007 to September 2008 – about when 9MP projects were rolled out - the KL Construction Index traded up to 24 times price-to-earnings and 2.2 times price/net tangible asset (+2SD above mean) vs mean valuations now.

“And in anticipation of more aggressive rollout of high multiplier projects, the KL Construction Index has room to trade higher and possibly test 2007/2008 highs,” it said.

HDBSVR said its high conviction picks for the sector are Gamuda and MRCB – the two largest beneficiaries of the MRT project. Its recent initiation on MMC is also an alternative MRT proxy.

“We are also positive on Gamuda’s Vietnam project that is slated for maiden launch in October. Our other BUYs are IJM as the safest proxy to the sector given its diversified earnings base and strategy to bid for a large pool of contracts, while WCT remains the proxy most leveraged to the sector. Our small cap value pick is Sunway which is trading at only 10 times CY11 EPS and will post record FY10 earnings,” it said.

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Distribution and Accumulation

At the top and bottom of market moves price activity slows and briefly shows a consolidation or broadening pattern.

At market tops this is a distribution pattern. Canny traders sell stock at high prices to less skilled market participants. They distribute their holdings.

At market bottoms these same canny traders accumulate stock from sellers who have given up in disgust.

These patterns are not sudden. They develop slowly, keeping prices within a temporary trading band on steady volume. When these patterns coincide with GMMA crossover points in two time frames we get additional confirmation of a major trend change.

A Personal Million Dollar Story I Don't Mind Sharing

Taken from Talk and Share

A Personal Million Dollar Story I Don't Mind Sharing

I aspire to be a millionaire!. Yes.. a millionaire. But then who doesn't?

Way back in June 2006, I started planning my route to a millionaire's club. Way back then, I did not know whether I was an investor or a trader. This seems to be the first question a newbie has to response when chatting for the first time in the talkandshare.com. Now I know I am a trader because I despise tying up my money in the stock market if it is not "growing" daily.

I began trading/investing going against two "don't" in stock market. Firstly, I used an overdraft facility of RM200,000. But at any one time I did not exceed RM180,000 so that when the monthly interest was added to the account, it did not exceed the limit. Secondly, I traded/invested in warrants only, and only one warrant at a time.

In late November 2006, with the Bursa CI trending upwards plus a little knowledge in Fundamental Analysis and almost zero in Technical Analysis, I bought 1,050,000 units of TA-WB @ 14 sen/unit and started planning on my PDA what to do when I gained RM1,000,000. Hmm.. I am a normal human being. Before I slept each night, I would check and revise the plan. Many a times, I raised the target price because I needed more than a million to fulfill my immediate needs as a new millionaire.

Every trading day I started work at my workstation at 8.30 am, took a break from 12.30 pm to 2.30 pm, and stayed back until market closed at 5.00 pm monitoring my million-dollar-to-be TA-WB. I chose TA-WB because of TA Enterprise's solid fundamental. Furthermore, there were share buybacks at that time by none other than the spouse of the Executive Chairman of the Company. "When Datin bought back mother shares, the company must be going for the better", I reasoned. When the price reached 19 sen I told my wife I made a paper profit of RM50,000. She begged me to take profit. "RM50,000 is a lot of money", she said. I told her my target was RM1,000,000.

The price kept creeping up. It reached 21 sen. I was happy and excited. Then the price started falling. "Its ok for the price to oscillate as long as its overall trend is up", I told myself. Gone were my happiness and excitement. When the price came down to 15 sen, I panicked. Sell or hold, sell or hold I asked myself. Finally I sold @ 13.5 sen. I lost RM6,800. Not only that, the interest on the overdraft kept adding up, RM1,200 a month. Later I found out that the price I sold was the lowest that day. It closed @ 15 sen.

I was not to be beaten. I believe that during a bull market it is not that difficult to gain from stock market. I believe that it is a matter of choice and timing. I scrutinized all the warrants available, checked their exercise price and expiry date, and the health of their mother shares. During the second week of January 2007, I entered the market again. This time I purchased 1,020,000 units of Asiaep-WA @ 13 sen/unit. With the TA-WB experience still fresh in my mind, I disposed all of them @ 22.5 sen the following week with a gain of RM94,900. Not bad, I told myself. If I could repeat it ten times I would achieve my target.

Late January 2007, I bought TA-WB again. This time 700,000 units @ 24 sen/unit. The next day the price of TA-WB refused to rise, so I sold @ 23.5 sen. Again I lost, this time RM5,370. I had no luck with TA-WB although I believed that TA Enterprise Berhad was a strong and profitable company with diversified business. I immediately bought Ancom-WA the same day, 350,000 units @ 22.5 sen/unit. This time I was lucky again. The warrant price gained the next day with high volume, and I sold all @ 31.5 with a profit of RM30,683.

By then the Chinese New Year was fast approaching with a two-day break, 19-20 February 2007. I was contemplating whether to buy and hold over the two-day break or to buy after the new year when daily volume on Bursa started to increase. Not to miss the bull market, I finally decided to buy and hold. So on 14 February 2007, I purchased 1,200,000 units of Insas-WA @ 17 sen/unit. It closed @ 20 sen. The next day it opened @ 21 sen, went up to 24 sen but closed @ 21 sen. On the last day before the break, it opened @21.5 sen and went up to close @ 28 sen. I smiled to myself, happy that I had made a good decision.

Come 21 February 2007 after the Chinese New Year break, Insas-WA opened gap-up @ 30.5 sen and went up all the way to close @ 53 sen. I was ecstatic at the paper gain of RM427,500. The following morning it went up to 58 sen before it succumbed to selling pressure and closed the day at 47.5 sen. I did not sell, hoping for it to go up further. The next day it opened at 47.5 sen and went down to 40 sen before closing at 43 sen. I sold the following day @ 43 sen with a gain of RM308,000.

On 27 February 2007, Bursa CI experienced a sharp drop. I then decided to take a break and went to Singapore for a holiday.

Looking back, TA-WB reached a high of RM1.21 before the sharp drop. Had I held to 1,050,000 units of TA-WB I bought in November 2006 and sold @ above RM1.15, I would have achieved my target of gaining RM1,000,000! Sigh.

38 Steps To Become A Successful Trader

I find that the following steps are true.
Credits: This article was originally posted by SK in HILT.

01 We accumulate trading information - buying books, going to seminars and researching.
02 We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge.
03 We consistently 'donate' and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.
04 We accumulate more information.
05 We switch the commodities we are currently following.
06 We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge.
07 We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in.
08 We start to listen to 'outside news' & other traders.
09 We go back into the market and continue to donate.
10 We switch commodities again.
11 We search for more trading information.
12 We go back into the market and continue to donate.
13 We get 'overconfident' & market humbles us.
14 We start to understand that trading successfully is going to take more time and more knowledge then we anticipated. Note: Many traders will give up at this point as they realize work is involved.
15 We get serious and start concentrating on learning a 'real' methodology.
16 We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing.
17 We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.
18 We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.
19 We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute.
20 We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules.
21 We go back into the market and continue to donate.
22 We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the trade methodology.
23 We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules.
24 As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rules and our results are erratic. We know we are close.
25 We go back and research our rules.
26 We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.
27 Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules.
28 We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don't follow them.
29 We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.
30 We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.
31 We master our methodology and trading rules.
32 We begin to consistently make money.
33 We begin to consistently make money.
34 We get a little overconfident and the market humbles us.
35 We continue to learn our lessons.
36 We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size.
37 We are making more money then we ever dreamed to be possible.
38 We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we have always dreamed of.

Selected Stock Hot News

Reflections on Volume

Friday, September 3, 2010

HDBSVR: RM36b mass rapid transit to transform local construction landscape

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