Reflections on Volume

Big volume without further upside equals distribution
Big volume without further downside equals accumulation

Volume tends to peak at turning points
Volume often precedes price movement
Volume is a relative study


Friday, February 11, 2011

AirAsia defers delivery of 10 Airbus A320 from 2012 to 2015, opts for fuel-efficient planes

KUALA LUMPUR: AIRASIA BHD [] has signed an agreement with Airbus S.A.S to revise the delivery dates of 10 Airbus A320 aircraft from 2012 to 2015.

It said on Friday, Feb 11 the move was to allow some flexibility to switch from its current order of the classic A320 to a new generation A320 aircraft which is more fuel efficient when such aircraft come into production in the near future.

With the deferment, the delivery of 24 aircraft in 2012 would be reduced to 14 aircraft, while the number of deliveries in 2015 will be increased from nine aircraft to 19 aircraft, it said.

“No penalties are payable by AirAsia in revising the delivery schedule of the 2012 aircraft,” it said, adding the deferral would also have a positive impact from the balance sheet perspective, as it would help to maintain the company's net gearing position to below two.

AirAsia said it would take delivery of 14 aircraft in 2012, which would enable the company to support the growth of its joint ventures in the Philippines as well as Vietnam while continuing to support existing affiliate airlines.

“On the back of AirAsia very encouraging financial results in the last quarter, the focus of the company is to consolidate its growth while creating growth in other regions.

“The deferment is expected to create a greater optimisation of aircraft utilisation in tandem with the growth in passenger capacity,” it said.

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AirAsia: Buy, target price RM3.10

AmResearch kept its "buy" call on budget airline AirAsia Bhd's (5099)stock, but said its fair value of RM3.10 a share is under a review with an upward bias.

The research firm noted recent newswire reports that AirAsia plans to list its Thai unit, Thai AirAsia, within the third quarter of this year.

Air Asia has also been targeting to list its Indonesian associate, Indonesia AirAsia (IAA) , this year.

"We believe AirAsia could be looking to raise between US$300 million and US$500 million (RM912 million and RM1.52 billion) for each associate from the respective listings," the research house said in a note to clients yesterday.

The listing of its associate in Indonesia is facing "minor hur-dles" as a new ruling by the In-donesian government requires airlines in that country to have on-balance sheet financing of at least five aircraft by 2012.

"Currently, all aircraft operated by IAA are on operating leases from AirAsia. What this means is that the transfer of aircraft debt to IAA could be accelerated to meet Indonesian regulation deadline," AmResearch said.

AirAsia remained the research firm's top pick in the sector. It last traded at RM2.70.

AmResearch said key catalysts for the stock in the near-term could be a strong fourth quarter 2010 results (to be announced next month), a stronger ringgit and the listing of its associates, which could potentially add another 30 sen to 50 sen to its valuation.

It also noted that the listings would create standalone aircraft financing for IAA and Thai AirAsia, reducing the strain on AirAsia's balance sheet.

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